Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. They authors two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
